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Khamenei’s Ramadan speech combined explicit attacks on the United States, implicit criticism of Rouhani’s approach, and excessive demands on Europe, seemingly bracing the regime for one of the toughest challenges of his thirty-year rule. Every Ramadan, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei uses the occasion of a post-fast iftar dinner to deliver a message to the Iranian people and the international community. On May 23, he offered public remarks during a meal with several top officials, among them President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani. This year’s speech served two ends: it outlined Iran’s starting position for negotiating with Europe now that the United States has left the nuclear deal, and it sought to unify the Iranian public against the hardships they will encounter in the coming months. “TOM AND JERRY” IN TEHRAN Not surprisingly, most of the speech was a response to the Trump administration’s recent withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Khamenei repeated his basic narrative that Washington seeks to overthrow the Islamic Republic, and that the nuclear issue was only a cover for reaching that goal. He then touted Iran’s ability to make progress despite U.S.

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“subversion,” promising that Washington’s plots will continue to fail like those of “the cat from the well-known Tom and Jerry cartoon.” Khamenei has cracked the same joke in the past to make a point about the country’s resilience under U.S. In 2011, months before Washington imposed tough sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, he declared that such measures were ineffective because Tehran could readily counter “Tom” and his Western allies: “They do a lot of things, make a lot of noise and are big in size, but the result of their actions is not as good as expected.” KHAMENEI’S SIX LESSONS The heart of the speech was a list of six takeaways that Iranians should draw from the JCPOA experience.

As always with Khamenei’s remarks, every line was carefully crafted and infused with signals to different audiences. This time, the main audiences were the EU3 (Britain, France, and Germany), the Iranian people, and President Rouhani. Iran cannot work with the United States. Khamenei claimed that President Trump’s JCPOA decision was a symptom of a greater disease—Washington does not stand behind its commitments, no matter who is president. In his view, even President Obama breached the “spirit and body” of the nuclear deal and tried to destabilize the regime. Thus, Iran “cannot trust such a government, sign a contract with it, or work with it.” This message was directed at Rouhani and Zarif—who both supported diplomacy with Washington—and at those Iranian reformists who still aspire to engage America in a “Dialogue of Civilizations.” In short, it was Khamenei’s “I told you so.” 2. Animosity centers on the Islamic Republic’s essence, not its nuclear program. Khamenei mentioned Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s May 21 speech on Iran, arguing that the administration’s list of twelve demands merely confirms Washington’s root problem with Tehran: namely, the regime’s refusal to compromise with the United States, and its adherence to an Islamic system of governance and values. According to him, America’s chosen method of addressing this “problem” is to “obliterate the factors of power in the Islamic Republic” such as its nuclear program and ballistic missiles.

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Flexibility toward the “enemy” will only make it more aggressive. Khamenei noted that while he does not oppose efforts to reduce foreign animosity toward Iran, past experience has convinced him that this cannot be realized through “flexibility and compromise” with the U.S. “enemy.” As proof, he claimed that the compromises Tehran made under the Rafsanjani and Khatami governments only brought more pressure. This claim carries an implicit criticism of Rouhani, a key player in implementing policy under both of those governments.

Khamenei’s Ramadan speech combined explicit attacks on the United States, implicit criticism of Rouhani’s approach, and excessive demands on Europe, seemingly bracing the regime for one of the toughest challenges of his thirty-year rule. Every Ramadan, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei uses the occasion of a post-fast iftar dinner to deliver a message to the Iranian people and the international community. On May 23, he offered public remarks during a meal with several top officials, among them President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani. This year’s speech served two ends: it outlined Iran’s starting position for negotiating with Europe now that the United States has left the nuclear deal, and it sought to unify the Iranian public against the hardships they will encounter in the coming months. “TOM AND JERRY” IN TEHRAN Not surprisingly, most of the speech was a response to the Trump administration’s recent withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Khamenei repeated his basic narrative that Washington seeks to overthrow the Islamic Republic, and that the nuclear issue was only a cover for reaching that goal. He then touted Iran’s ability to make progress despite U.S.

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“subversion,” promising that Washington’s plots will continue to fail like those of “the cat from the well-known Tom and Jerry cartoon.” Khamenei has cracked the same joke in the past to make a point about the country’s resilience under U.S. In 2011, months before Washington imposed tough sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, he declared that such measures were ineffective because Tehran could readily counter “Tom” and his Western allies: “They do a lot of things, make a lot of noise and are big in size, but the result of their actions is not as good as expected.” KHAMENEI’S SIX LESSONS The heart of the speech was a list of six takeaways that Iranians should draw from the JCPOA experience.

As always with Khamenei’s remarks, every line was carefully crafted and infused with signals to different audiences. This time, the main audiences were the EU3 (Britain, France, and Germany), the Iranian people, and President Rouhani. Iran cannot work with the United States. Khamenei claimed that President Trump’s JCPOA decision was a symptom of a greater disease—Washington does not stand behind its commitments, no matter who is president. In his view, even President Obama breached the “spirit and body” of the nuclear deal and tried to destabilize the regime. Thus, Iran “cannot trust such a government, sign a contract with it, or work with it.” This message was directed at Rouhani and Zarif—who both supported diplomacy with Washington—and at those Iranian reformists who still aspire to engage America in a “Dialogue of Civilizations.” In short, it was Khamenei’s “I told you so.” 2. Animosity centers on the Islamic Republic’s essence, not its nuclear program. Khamenei mentioned Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s May 21 speech on Iran, arguing that the administration’s list of twelve demands merely confirms Washington’s root problem with Tehran: namely, the regime’s refusal to compromise with the United States, and its adherence to an Islamic system of governance and values. According to him, America’s chosen method of addressing this “problem” is to “obliterate the factors of power in the Islamic Republic” such as its nuclear program and ballistic missiles.

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Flexibility toward the “enemy” will only make it more aggressive. Khamenei noted that while he does not oppose efforts to reduce foreign animosity toward Iran, past experience has convinced him that this cannot be realized through “flexibility and compromise” with the U.S. “enemy.” As proof, he claimed that the compromises Tehran made under the Rafsanjani and Khatami governments only brought more pressure. This claim carries an implicit criticism of Rouhani, a key player in implementing policy under both of those governments.